De l'or ... dans le tungstène ?? (4)

par alatan, jeudi 14 juillet 2005, 15:36 (il y a 7054 jours) @ alatan

Je continue avec une description plus longue en anglais, que j'ai écrit le 16 juin. Dans cette texte, j'ai interpreté le bond comme réaction aux annonces de la société,
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/050615/2b875fbb54aef1784693701cae399e4c.html>.v=2
Peut-être l'alerte des frères Coffin était plus important,
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp>no=9816689&t=0&all=0&...

Pour la traduction automatique vers le français, les anglophobes pourraient utiliser les outils automatiques, voir
http://www.humanitas-international.org/newstran/more-trans.htm

Alan

Tungsten is going ballistic. This phrase could derive from recent news stories about "rods from god" (a next-generation "star wars" weapon), or about "green ammo" (bullets and shot made of tungsten rather than lead). But in this context, I refer to tungsten commodity prices.

Tungsten commodity prices are at a historical high, roughly six times greater than the baseline prices established during the last two decades.

Primary Metals (PMI.V) is the only public company which is actually mining tungsten today. Its century-old Portuguese mine, Panasqueira, has been producing tungsten ore nearly continuously for over 50 years, with only a brief halt in 1994.

At current tungsten prices, I believe that Primary Metals is now generating a net cash flow of over one million $US PER MONTH. Its fully diluted market cap was less than 7 million $US yesterday morning ... and 11.5 million $US yesterday evening. Despite yesterday's move, which resulted from a positive press release, I believe that this company remains significantly undervalued.

This has been a true underground story. Using the Internet, I have located some 20 English language news stories which covered the current tungsten shortage during the last three months. Not one of them mentioned PMI. They referred to North American Tungsten (NTC.V) and its efforts to reopen its Canadian mine, and to the large Vietnamese mine project of Tiberon Minerals (TBR.T). An April 14th article in The Economist did mention a Portuguese mine, but its online version links readers to the NTC Web site. Typical investor knowledge is summed up by this statement I found in an investment forum: "If tungsten follows in the path of other steel harderners such as vanadium and molybdenum, prices will go much much higher. The problem is that there are no real current producers to buy into." WRONG. But after yesterday's 70% jump in stock price, PMI will be attracting attention.

Until yesterday's press release, communication from the company has been neutral, negative or outright puzzling. I formed my own positive opinion by reading positive reports appearing in the Portuguese press and studying strategic analyses of world production and known ore deposits. A new majority owner has reorganized the share structure, reduced debt, and injected money over the last few months. The PMI board and management recently issued itself new stock options. I believe the company is now ready to tell its story. The next annual report should appear in late July, covering operations through Mar 2005. The first quarter 2006 report should appear a few weeks later and clearly show the effect of the soaring tungsten price.