Je présente ma meilleure idée actuelle. C'est un investissement tellement intéressant que j'ai tordu mes règles de base et j'ai dépassé (un peu) ma limite de 5% de portif pour une seule société. Je présente mes excuses, aussi, parce que ça fait quelques semaines que j'aurais voulu décrire cette idée pour ce forum, que j'apprécie beaucoup. Le faire en français est un peu pénible pour moi. Donc, je me contente avec un résumé en français et un texte plus complet en anglais.

La mine Panasqueira en Portugal est un des dernières mines de tungstène dans le monde occidentale. Le prix de tungstène a flambé ces derniers mois. J'estime que le propriétaire de cette mine dégage un "free cash flow" (recettes de vente moins coûts de production et de vente) un peu PLUS GRAND que sa capitalisation boursière (pleinement diluée). En plus, les investissements déjà décidés ou sous considération permettront d'augmenter la production considérablement (d'après mes estimations, entre 25% et 100%).

Ce n'est pas une situation durable, parce que le prix de tungstène va sûrement chuter. C'est donc un investissement risqué ... c'est vraiment un sujet pour Securibourse>> Mais, en fonction de ce qui se passe en Chine, la crise actuelle de provisionnement pourrait durer un an voir deux voir même plus longtemps.

Panasqueira est essentiellement le seul actif de la société canadienne Primary Metals (PMI.V en Canada, aussi PMIZF.PK sur les Pink Sheets aux US).
http://www.primarymetals.ca
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayProfile.do>lang=FR&issuerType=03&issuerNo=00013520
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do>lang=FR&issuerNo=00013520
http://www.tse.com/HttpController>GetPage=QuotesViewPage&Language=fr&QuoteSy...
http://www.tse.com/HttpController>GetPage=DelayedMarketByPrice&Market=VN&Lan...
Bourso montre la correcte évolution du prix de l'action de Primary Metals, mais sous un nom incorrect :
http://www.boursorama.com/graphiques/graphique_histo.phtml>symbole=3vPMI

Donc, il faut pouvoir acheter à l'étranger, de préférence sur la bourse canadienne. J'utilise mon courtier en ligne InteractiveBrokers (très pro, le moins cher de tous les courtiers du monde pour des petits placements, 1$ pour cent actions aux US et 2$ en Canada, aussi les actions en Grande-Bretagne, France, Allemagne, ..., plus les options, les commodités, ...). D'autres en France prèferrent Internaxx (longuement discuté sur le forum Admiral Bay de Bourso).

Quasiment toute l'information que je vais donner est en anglais, MAIS les francophones ont une avantage. C'est cette excellente analyse de la marche de tungstène, préparée pour le gouvernement français l'année passée :
http://www.industrie.gouv.fr/energie/matieres/textes/ecomine_note_mai04.htm
Je n'ai vu rien de comparable en anglais, et j'ai lu quasiment tout ce qui est disponible gratuitement sur le Web au sujet de tungstène et de la société Primary Metals. Ce rapport fait référence à la "mine emblématique de Panasqueira (Portugal)". Je peux supplémenter leur information, en ajoutant que Phillips a finalement laissé tombé leur contrat avec Panasqueira l'année passé, et que Primary Metals a décidé la fermeture de la mine. Mais le gouvernement portugais est intervenu en avancant les salaires des mineurs, pour maintenir la mine en opération à un bas niveau d'activité. C'est la raison que la société Primary Metals est uniquement positionnée pour profiter du prix actuel de tungstène. Il semble que les mêmes auteurs ont aussi écrit cette analyse, plus veille mais intéressante aussi :
http://www.industrie.gouv.fr/energie/matieres/textes/jeu-de-go.htm

Avocet (une société anglaise avec des mines d'or) est le précèdent propriétaire de Panasqueira. Pendant longtemps Avocet avait essayé de s’établir comme mineur important de tungstène (avec des actifs en Russie, Peru, les US). Devant le flux interrompu de tungstène Chinois, Avocet a finalement baissé les bras l'année passée. Avocet a décidé de céder sa part de Primary Metals a une nouvelle actionnaire majoritaire (et, au passage, a simplement annulé plusieurs million d’Euros de dettes!). La nouvelle actionnaire majoritaire est Almonty LLC, une société incorporée dans le Delaware aux US (où les statuts sont très favorables aux sociétés et où les actionnaires peuvent rester dans l'anonymat).

En fait, deux personnes sont principalement derrière Almonty : Lewis Black (associé à une petite mine de tungstène en Thailande, SC Mining Co) et Daniel d'Amato. Pour la "French Connection", j'ai entendu dire (source confidentielle) que Black, et peut-être d'autres investisseurs d'Almonty, habitent Paris! Je n'ai pas pu confirmer cette rumeur.

Almonty a négocié un meilleur accord à long terme avec leur seul client, est en traine de complètement renouveler l’équipement souterrain, évalue actuellement d'autres moyens d'augmenter la production, et a réglé quasiment tous les dettes de Primary Metals (sauf le prêt du gouvernment Portugais et son propre avance d'argent pour l'équipement).

Primary Metals a émit 10 million actions. Je compte entre 5 et 6 millions d'options, de warrants (BS), et d’actions potentielles associées au prêt convertible d'Almonty … peut-être moins de 5 millions, si l'action continue à monter, à cause de l'effet de la montée sur la conversion du prêt. A 0.85 $CDN, c'est une capitalisation pleinement diluée de 10 à 11 million $US.

Pour le prix de tungstène, voici une sorte de portail Internet (en fait, c'est le site d'un fabriquant de produits intermédiaires qui essaient d'expliquer ses hausses de prix à ses clients)
http://www.alldyne.com/News/News.htm
L'article de The Economist est un des plus intéressants,
http://www.geodexminerals.com/pdf/Tungsten-Economist.pdf
Je suis moi-même tombé sur le sujet en lisant cet article de Resource Investor (qui a été référencé dans un forum Bourso),
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp>relid=9691

Ce dernier article fait décrit, comme possibilités d'investissement, deux sociétés : Tiberon Minerals (qui a un projet d’une grosse mine en Vietnam) et North American Tungsten (qui va remettre en route sa mine canadienne). J'ai trouvé Tiberon intéressante comme possibilité, mais pas en position de profiter du pic actuel de prix. North American Tungsten me semblait avoir une capitalisation trop élevée (quoique l'action est en traîne de plonger). J'ai continué a chercher, et après deux semaines de recherche, je suis tombé sur Primary Metals. C'est de loin le plus intéressant des possibilités pour moi, même si d'autres producteurs potentiels commencent à pointer leur nez.

D'autres commencent à découvrir cette Primary Metals. Les frères Coffin ont envoyé une alerte a leurs abonnés, dont le contenu est dispo sur un forum, ici,
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp>no=9816689&t=0&all=0&...
Les frères Coffin publient un newsletter assez respecté, http://www.hardrockanalyst.com . Le bond de l'action le 16 juin était en réaction à cette alerte et aussi à des annonces très positives de Primary Metals :
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/050615/2b875fbb54aef1784693701cae399e4c.html>.v=2

Hier après-midi, Resource Investor a publié un article uniquement sur Primary Metals. C'est la raison que, enfin, j'écris ce message pour le forum. La réalité a rattrapé mes bonnes intentions. L'action devrait encore faire un bond.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp>relid=11323

J'attend surtout la publication des résultats, très bientôt. D'abords l'année fiscale (qui court jusqu'au fin mars), et rapidement après les trimestriels (où on verra l'effet de l'énorme bond de prix de tungstène en mai).

Pour évaluer Primary Metals (et aussi les producteurs potentiels), il faut réfléchir au futur prix de tungstène. (Voir les références cités ci-dessus en français et mon message suivant en anglais pour les termes spécifiques à tungstène : MTU, APT, concentré, etc.).

o) A 50 $US/MTU d'APT -- Pendant 20 ans, la production sauvage en Chine a ramené les prix vers ce niveau (sauf pendant de courtes périodes de temps). C'est en-dessous la prix de production des mineurs occidentales, y compris Panasqueira. Si cette exportation chinoise se reprend, aux abris! A ce prix, Primary Metals ne vaudrait pas grande chose. Mais la choque de la crise actuelle pourraient ramener les utilisateurs à rétablir les contrats à long terme au-dessus le prix de marché -- c'est ce genre de contrat qui a maintenu Panasqueira en opération pendant les derniers 20 ans.

o) A 100 $US/MTU d'APT -- A ce prix, Panasqueira sera bien rentable. On peut s'attendre à un prix de cet ordre si la production sauvage chinoise ne revient pas et les mines occidentales redémarrent et répondent à la demande. A ce prix et au niveau actuel de production, il me semble que Primary Metals rest sous-évalué par un facteur de deux aux moins (mais il faut prendre en compte la possibilité d'un retour du marteau chinois sur le prix de tungstène).

o) A 300 $US/MTU d'APT -- C'est le prix actuel. Je crois que Panasqueira réalise entre 100 et 150 $US net / MTU de concentré. Primary Metals parle d'une production annuelle de 120,000 MTUs de concentré. C'est :
** 1.0 à 1.5 millions $US net par MOIS
** pour une capitalisation pleinement diluée de 10 à 11 million $US!
En plus, en suivant les nouvelles dans la presse portugaise, j'ai l'impression que la production actuelle est plutôt à 1,200 MTUs / mois, même avant l'installation des nouvelles machines qui devrait encore augmenter la production. Evidemment, c'est un mystère combien de temps la crise va durer. Le gouvernement US se prépare à mettre sur le marché un tiers de leurs réservés non-stratégiques, cad un tiers de la demande mondiale, à partir de novembre :
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp>no=9895173&t=0&all=0&...

Il y a un forum pour Primary Metals, ici,
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/forum.asp>symbol=PMI&table=list
C'est très peu actif, mais j'espère pouvoir l'animer un peu -- là, je suis AlTannr.

Je continue avec une description plus longue en anglais, que j'ai écrit le 16 juin. Dans cette texte, j'ai interpreté le bond comme réaction aux annonces de la société,
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/050615/2b875fbb54aef1784693701cae399e4c.html>.v=2
Peut-être l'alerte des frères Coffin était plus important,
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp>no=9816689&t=0&all=0&...

Pour la traduction automatique vers le français, les anglophobes pourraient utiliser les outils automatiques, voir
http://www.humanitas-international.org/newstran/more-trans.htm

Alan

Tungsten is going ballistic. This phrase could derive from recent news stories about "rods from god" (a next-generation "star wars" weapon), or about "green ammo" (bullets and shot made of tungsten rather than lead). But in this context, I refer to tungsten commodity prices.

Tungsten commodity prices are at a historical high, roughly six times greater than the baseline prices established during the last two decades.

Primary Metals (PMI.V) is the only public company which is actually mining tungsten today. Its century-old Portuguese mine, Panasqueira, has been producing tungsten ore nearly continuously for over 50 years, with only a brief halt in 1994.

At current tungsten prices, I believe that Primary Metals is now generating a net cash flow of over one million $US PER MONTH. Its fully diluted market cap was less than 7 million $US yesterday morning ... and 11.5 million $US yesterday evening. Despite yesterday's move, which resulted from a positive press release, I believe that this company remains significantly undervalued.

This has been a true underground story. Using the Internet, I have located some 20 English language news stories which covered the current tungsten shortage during the last three months. Not one of them mentioned PMI. They referred to North American Tungsten (NTC.V) and its efforts to reopen its Canadian mine, and to the large Vietnamese mine project of Tiberon Minerals (TBR.T). An April 14th article in The Economist did mention a Portuguese mine, but its online version links readers to the NTC Web site. Typical investor knowledge is summed up by this statement I found in an investment forum: "If tungsten follows in the path of other steel harderners such as vanadium and molybdenum, prices will go much much higher. The problem is that there are no real current producers to buy into." WRONG. But after yesterday's 70% jump in stock price, PMI will be attracting attention.

Until yesterday's press release, communication from the company has been neutral, negative or outright puzzling. I formed my own positive opinion by reading positive reports appearing in the Portuguese press and studying strategic analyses of world production and known ore deposits. A new majority owner has reorganized the share structure, reduced debt, and injected money over the last few months. The PMI board and management recently issued itself new stock options. I believe the company is now ready to tell its story. The next annual report should appear in late July, covering operations through Mar 2005. The first quarter 2006 report should appear a few weeks later and clearly show the effect of the soaring tungsten price.

This is a China story with a vengeance. Most energy and mineral resource investments are "China plays," with a few possible exceptions such as uranium and North American natural gas. But the future tungsten price evolution will depend very heavily on obscure events in China. Over the last two decades, almost all non-Chinese tungsten producers shut down. They could not cope with the combined effect of cheap (and illegal) Chinese exports and dumping of accumulated US and FSU strategic reserves. China's share of worldwide tungsten ore production rose to approximately 80%. But it appears that the Chinese central government has finally, after several false starts, succeeded in shutting down most illegal mines. With internal demand soaring and production problems at some of its official mines, China is now having problems meeting its own internal demand for tungsten ore. Non-Chinese customers may soon face slowdowns and layoffs due to the supply shortage.

What goes up must come down. Additional production will inevitably come online, and perhaps result in an oversupply. If cheap Chinese supplies do return to the market, the future of the Panasqueira mine will again be in doubt. I see three "parachutes" which would assure Primary Metals of a soft landing. I believe these parachutes would assure a long-term base value for Primary Metals in line with or exceeding its current capitalization:
o) Shaken by the supply interruption, major western clients may return to the sort of long-term above-market contracts which kept Panasqueira alive until last year.
o) The central Chinese government may finally achieve its official goals of stamping out wildcat production, limiting ore exports and supporting tungsten prices.
o) Support from the new majority owner and the current free cash flow is permitting Primary Metals to completely revamp the aging equipment and lower future production costs at Panasqueira.

I believe the current value of Primary Metals is secure, unless none of these parachutes deploy. The earnings bonanza accumulated during the tungsten price peak will probably be invested in additional mining projects. The future value of Primary Metals depends on the duration of the tungsten price spike and management's choice of new mining projects.

Here are some positive aspects:
o) Ownership. PMI has a new majority owner Almonty LLC, who intends to increase production as quickly as possible in order to take advantage of the price spike.
o) Debts. All major debts have been forgiven or settled, except a 1.2 million Euro loan from the Portuguese government, for which management expects to negotiate a long-term repayment plan.
o) Political support. The mine, which is the principal economic activity in the region, receives strong support from the Portuguese government.
o) Labor peace. In early June, Portuguese papers reported that a standing labor dispute was settled. Miners asked for a 35 Euros/month increase, and management had offered 14 Euros/month. The dispute was settled when management upped their offer to 40 Euros/month (yes, higher than the union demand!).
o) Investments. The same news articles reported a commitment by Almonty to the union for a 3.4 million Euro investment. This will be used to develop the mine, with new equipment and perhaps new galleries. Yesterday's press release specified that all underground equipment is being replaced with the latest low-profile equipment.
o) Sales contract. (Since yesterday) a new multi-year contract with Osram Sylvania with "significant scope for increased production."
o) Current production. The Portuguese press has recently reported good production levels, for example, 120 tonnes of tungsten concentrate in May.
o) Future production. Yesterday's press release evoked the possibility of reprocessing existing tailings with new equipment. This could recover the equivalent of a years production. The new low-profile underground equipment will also "significantly" increase production, by extracting less waste rock.

TUNGSTEN COMMODITY TERMINOLOGY

Tungsten ore is called "concentrate." By weight, concentrate is roughly two thirds WO3 (tungsten tri-oxide) and one third impurities. Concentrate is typically priced per tonne of contained WO3 (tungsten tri-oxide) or per MTU (metric tonne unit). An MTU is 1% of a tonne of contained WO3. One MTU of concentrate grading 70% thus contains 10kg of MO3 and weighs 14.28kg. A metric ton contain 100 MTUs. In the U.S., one also sees the STU (short ton unit), which is about 9/10 of an MTU.

Refineries remove the impurities and convert the WO3 into APT (ammonium paratungstate). APT is also quoted per tonne or per MTU. Concentrate pricing is somewhat lower than the APT pricing (typically by 10% to 20%, or 10$ to 20$ per MTU), which takes into account the tolling fee for refinement. The Panasqueira concentrate is of exceptionally high quality (grading above 70%) and has traditionally traded somewhat higher than the market concentrate price.

TUNGSTEN COMMODITY HISTORY

Over the last two decades, the US and FSU countries have disposed of their large tunsgsten stockpiles accumulated during the cold war. Russian mines and refineries have massive potential, but the industry is disorganized. Most mines are closed, operating at low levels, or surviving by non-mining activities. Increasing mine production would require significant investment. There is currently no North American production, although a large Canadian mine should soon reopen. The U.S. government has disposed of most of its surplus tungsten inventory, although there remains roughly one years worth of world production (or 3 years of U.S. needs).

The Chinese government has steadily reduced the export authorization for tungsten ore and APT and encouraged concentration of authorized miners. However, until recently, wildcat mining and illegal export have made shams of government plans. The central government has apparently succeeded in shutting down most illegal mines. Production at some large mines has suffered due to electricity outages -- this production could come back online. Minmetals (Noranda's recent suitor) now controls over a third of the approved tungsten mining industry.

Over the last 15 years, APT prices have hovered near $50/MTU. Last year the price moved up to $100/MTU. The current price is nearly $300/MTU.

The most thorough discussion of tungsten pricing and Chinese strategy that I have seen was published in May 2004 by a French ministry [1]. I will briefly summarize its conclusions:
A supply crisis seems unlikely in the short term. [My note: the unlikely has occurred!] However, it is a legitimate concern over the long term, because:
1) A reduction in Chinese exports is possible. In this case, prices could reach $250/MTU. It seems that at least two years would be necessary to replace Chinese exports by starting up alternative mines outside China.
2) The effect is even stronger because the market has become rigid. The loss of small mines in China, Latin America and Africa means that the "flexibility" they once brought to the market no longer exists.
3) A critical situation would arise if Chinese exports were lost during an important conflict, because of the importance of tungsten in weapons systems.
4) The principal unknown is the state of Chinese reserves and resources.

TUNGSTEN SHORTAGE

Supply and demand are high imbalanced even inside China. I have heard that some Chinese concentrate users have looked into (illegally) importing concentrate into China! This is a drastic turnaround from China's previous role of concentrate supplier to the world. In the U.S., the National Association of Manufacturers warns of impending layoffs due to the tungsten shortage. Legislation is being prepared to permit a possible four-fold increase in tungsten sales from the National Defense Stockpile (NDS) during FY2006 (equivalent to a year's domestic usage). However, FY2005 NDS releases have been completed. Under current legislation, new NDS releases will not be possible until October.

CUSTOMER REACTION

In the past, uneasiness about Chinese supply has led some western companies to conclude long-term contracts with western mines at above-market prices. For years, the Panasqueira mine continued operations at a somewhat subdued level of activity because of such a contract with Phillips. Phillips let this contract lapse in early 2004, putting the mine's future in doubt. In Jan 2002, similar contracts with Sandvik (Sweden) and Osram Sylvania let North American Tungsten (NTC) reactivate its MacTung mine a 14 year halt. But a year and a half later, Sandvik and Osram Sylvania gave into "economic reality" and dropped their contracts, sending NTC into bankruptcy.

The current supply problems may well motivate large customers to once again conclude long-term contracts with satisfactory floor prices for western tungsten miners.

PANASQUEIRA MINE HISTORY

The Panasquiera mine license was granted over a century ago. At times, up to 3000 miners worked underground in the mine. The mine reportedly contains over 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles) of raises, declines, drifts and production tunnels. A European project aims to develop part of the mine into a museum. The mine is well-known to mineralogists and collectors for its spectacular mineral specimens.

In 1993, Avocet Mining (now quoted on AIM) decided to focus on mining tungsten. The company acquired the Panasquiera mine, and took minority interests in Russian and Peruvian mines. Disappointed by the low price for tungsten, in 2003 Avocet sold a majority interest in the Panasquiera mine to an investment group which adopted the name Primary Metals. Avocet continued to hold a minority interest in the mine and over 5 million $US of debt. This year, Avocet sold its interest to Almonty LLC, a Delaware corporation. Avocet essentially forgave the remaining debt, although it still holds a million share warrants. Almonty injected money into Primary Metals and became the majority shareholder. Canadian filings identify the principals of Almonty as Daniel d'Amato and Lewis Black. Industry publications suggested that Lewis Black is the prime mover behind Almonty. Black reportedly is based in Paris, and he is linked with the small Thai tungsten miner LC Mining. The purchase was reported financed by the Maxim Group of New York.

In early 2004, after the loss of its contract with Phillips, Primary Metals decided to close the Panasquiera mine. The Portuguese government intervened to maintain the mine in activity, and financed the miners' salaries through a loan.

The Panasquiera team maintains an approximately 5 year horizon on future production. It may be necessary to open up a new level in the mine, and the access shaft has been partially completed.

PANASQUEIRA ECONOMICS

Until yesterday's press release, there was absolutely no public information about the effect of the soaring tungsten price on Primary Metals' revenue. Primary Metals was operating under a sales contract to a single unidentified customer through April 2006. By phone, Primary Metals director James Robertson explained some elements of this contract. Although the details are confidential, he assured me that Primary Metals does profit from the increasing market price (i.e., there is no ceiling). However, above a certain price, Primary Metals and its customer share the increase. At current prices (nearly 300 $US/MTU of APT), Primary Metals should realize a per-MTU revenue in the range of 160 to 190 $US.

Yesterday's press release spoke of 25 million $US revenue for an annual production of 120,000 MTUs at current prices. That corresponds to a sales price of 208 $US/MTU. An earlier press release evoked the possibility that Almonty could could secure a higher price in a renegotiated contract. It appears that Almonty succeeded on that point.

Historically, the production cost at Panasquiera was approximately 50 $US/MTU. Under the conjugated effects of unfavorable $-Euro evolution, somewhat lower grade ore, and aging equipment, the cost has risen to the 70-75 $/MTU range.

At an annual production of 120,000 MTUs and current prices, these figures would indicate an average monthly free cash flow of 1.3 million $US = 10,000 MTU/month x (208 - 75) $US.

Scattered references in Portuguese news reports lead me to believe that current monthly production is closer to 12,000 MTUs. New low-profile mining equipment should increase monthly production and lower production cost, by extracting less waste rock along with the ore-bearing veins. This low-profile equipment has been developed for South African chrome and platinum mines.

SHARE STRUCTURE

Yesterday's press release indicated 9.98 million shares have been issued. Other recent press releases indicate that there are between 5 and 6 million warrrants, options, and future shares and warrants associated with a convertible loan. The exact number of shares and warrants associated with the convertible loan depend on share price and loan utilization over the next year.

POSSIBLE CATALYSTS FOR STOCK PRICE APPRECIATION
-- Ballistic tungsten price
-- Increased visibility due to yesterday's price jump of 70%
-- Upcoming annual and quarterly filings
-- Halo effect from a competitor's decision to reopen its Canadian mine
-- Company's own promotional efforts, absent until yesterday
-- [AND, I should add, possible discovery by an investment newsletter!]

REFERENCE
[1] http://www.industrie.gouv.fr/energie/matieres/textes/ecomine_note_mai04.htm (in French)

Alan Tanner

Là il va me falloir un peu de temps pour lire et comprendre...l'intérêt ou non d'investir dans cette mine. Les matières premières, a priori, c'est pas mon truc pour la simple raison que c'est trop politique, mais on ne sait jamais...

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jean-marie

Pour tout ce travail, avec en plus la traduction en français qui a du être longue. Ca a l'air effectivement très intéressant et je vais regarder ça de près !

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