Suite (c tjs long et mal présenté) (Securibourse)

par J.L.2, vendredi 31 octobre 2008, 18:30 (il y a 5871 jours) @ J.L.2

ÉTATS-UNIS : VALORISATIONS, ESTIMATIONS ET
PERFORMANCES
Rappel liste Oddo Securities :
composition et performance 22
Tableau de bord perf. secteurs
DJ Stoxx et S&P 500 22
Tableau de bord perf.
estimations consensus et valo DJ Stoxx 24
Tableau de bord perf.
estimations consensus et valo S&P 500 25
P/E 12 M/f des secteurs et historique, DJ Stoxx 26
P/E 12 M/f des secteurs et historique, S&P 500 27
Historique récent de taux Europe et États-Unis 28
22
RAPPEL LISTE ODDO SECURITIES : COMPOSITION ET PERFORMANCE
Stock Sector
TP ODDO's
analyst Entry price Entry date ODDO rec. Price 28/10/08
Perf from
entry
E.ON utilities € 42.0 € 47.31 20/12/2007 Buy 25 -47.15%
KPN telecom € 13.0 € 11.91 16/04/2008 Buy 10.543 -11.48%
Vivendi telecom € 33.0 € 31.28 20/12/2007 Accumulate 19.98 -36.13%
Total oil € 63.0 € 47.63 17/07/2008 Buy 37.685 -20.88%
Casino food retail € 88.0 € 73.40 20/12/2007 Buy 49.78 -32.18%
Roche Holdings pharma CHF 215 196.4 20/12/2007 Buy 111.27 -6.03%
Thales aerospace defence € 45.0 € 41.40 16/04/2008 Accumulate 31.84 -23.09%
LVMH luxury goods € 74.0 € 81.15 20/12/2007 Buy 48.375 -40.39%
Publicis media € 25.0 € 25.53 20/12/2007 Buy 16.41 -35.72%
Dassault Systèmes software € 38.0 € 38.51 20/12/2007 Accumulate 30.04 -21.99%
dividends & cash 53.4
starting point, 20/12/07 Monthly perf Monthly perf 9 937.78
December 07 1.4% 2.1% 10 144.87 0.6%
January 08 -9.9% -7.0% 9 439.27 3.0%
February 08 -2.9% -2.6% 9 197.67 0.3%
March 08 -4.1% -0.5% 9 153.32 3.6%
April 08 5.6% 3.5% 9 470.33 -2.1%
May 08 -0.3% 2.7% 9 728.47 3.0%
June 08 -10.2% -9.6% 8 791.24 0.5%
July 08 -1.9% 2.6% 9 020.20 4.5%
August 08 1.6% 1.5% 9 152.45 -0.1%
September 08 -11.1% -9.7% 8 264.59 1.4%
October 08 -22.1% -14.4% 7076.1 7.7%
DJ Stoxx perf from 20/12/07 -44.52% Oddo list perf from
start
-28.80% Oddo list
value
7076.1 Perf spread 15.72%
Perf spread / TR 14.11%
Comp. Spread 28.3%
TABLEAU 19 SOURCE : ODDO SECURITIES
TABLEAU DE BORD PERFORMANCES SECTEURS DU DJ STOXX
23/10/2008 Perf 1 week Perf Quarter Perf YTD Peak to date Peak date
Chemicals 1.3% -23.1% -40.0% -39.0% 16/07/2007
Oils 11.7% -14.1% -36.4% -40.3% 13/07/2007
Paper / Packaging 6.2% -13.4% -35.9% -52.0% 06/02/2007
Metals & Mining -0.7% -37.5% -61.5% -65.8% 11/10/2007
Aerospace / Defence 2.2% -20.0% -42.2% -47.0% 15/06/2007
Construction -2.1% -24.1% -52.9% -65.8% 23/05/2007
Building materials -3.5% -21.8% -49.9% -61.0% 09/07/2007
Capital Goods -7.0% -32.9% -54.7% -59.0% 12/07/2007
Support sces 0.1% -20.6% -37.2% -47.8% 16/07/2007
Airlines 3.9% -10.5% -44.8% -61.1% 20/04/2007
Automotives -17.9% -26.0% -50.5% -58.2% 29/10/2007
General retailers -2.2% -15.3% -47.5% -64.2% 07/05/2007
Hotel / leisure -1.9% -18.9% -49.3% -63.7% 01/06/2007
Luxury/consumer goods 9.6% -11.0% -35.6% -39.4% 31/10/2007
Home & Personal Care 4.3% -9.0% -28.6% -29.3% 17/10/2007
Food producer 4.6% -9.2% -22.6% -22.5% 15/11/2007
Beverages -3.6% -22.1% -41.9% -46.0% 31/10/2007
Food retail 2.1% -16.4% -38.6% -43.6% 04/05/2007
Health 7.6% -2.6% -12.4% -26.5% 06/02/2007
Utilities 5.2% -15.2% -37.5% -37.1% 30/10/2007
IT Hardware 8.1% -14.1% -50.3% -58.3% 11/10/2007
Media 1.3% -13.4% -37.5% -49.5% 01/06/2007
Broadcasting 5.0% -10.8% -40.4% -48.6% 16/07/2007
Semiconductors 3.3% -18.0% -48.8% -59.8% 19/07/2007
IT Services 0.4% -28.3% -41.5% -57.8% 20/04/2007
Software 6.7% -24.7% -23.3% -32.4% 05/10/2007
Telecoms 1.4% -9.7% -38.3% -41.2% 29/10/2007
Insurances -5.0% -27.9% -48.1% -56.6% 20/06/2007
Banks -2.2% -22.4% -52.3% -63.0% 07/02/2007
Property, holdings, other financials -2.4% -17.8% -46.8% -56.5% 19/02/2007
DJ Stoxx 1.1% -18.5% -42.8% -47.9% 01/06/2007
TABLEAU 20 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
23
TABLEAU DE BORD PERFORMANCES SECTEURS S&P 500
23/10/2008 Perf 1 week Perf Quarter Perf YTD Peak to date Peak date
Chemicals -3.9% -19.7% -31.5% -36.4% 19/07/2007
Oils 1.4% -24.8% -38.7% -39.5% 26/12/2007
Paper / Packaging -8.4% -39.5% -49.8% -60.3% 19/07/2007
Metals & Mining -12.6% -43.8% -64.4% -66.7% 13/07/2007
Aerospace / Defence -4.2% -20.6% -36.2% -40.5% 01/10/2007
Construction -13.5% -43.9% -57.6% -78.1% 02/02/2007
Building materials -7.2% -26.5% -31.6% -50.6% 21/02/2007
Capital Goods -9.4% -29.5% -51.2% -54.5% 09/10/2007
Support sces -2.9% -20.2% -21.6% -30.2% 19/07/2007
Airlines -5.0% -18.3% -2.8% -26.0% 08/08/2007
Automotives -9.6% -42.5% -59.3% -69.8% 12/10/2007
General retailers -4.4% -22.6% -24.0% -36.3% 04/06/2007
Hotel / leisure -2.0% -20.0% -31.4% -38.1% 31/10/2007
Luxury/consumer goods -1.9% -14.8% -20.9% -23.8% 10/12/2007
Home & Personal Care -3.8% -16.8% -20.9% -22.4% 12/12/2007
Food producer 1.9% -12.0% -16.0% -18.3% 10/12/2007
Beverages -3.0% -20.4% -26.7% -29.2% 13/12/2007
Food retail -4.2% -15.7% -29.2% -36.0% 26/04/2007
Health -0.7% -13.6% -24.0% -27.0% 06/12/2007
Utilities 3.6% -14.2% -33.0% -35.4% 21/05/2007
IT Hardware -7.7% -24.3% -39.5% -44.7% 31/10/2007
Media -2.1% -20.6% -47.6% -51.8% 06/11/2007
Broadcasting -3.9% -26.3% -36.5% -47.1% 18/01/2007
Semiconductors -9.1% -25.0% -48.2% -51.2% 17/07/2007
IT Services -12.1% -35.2% -44.3% -56.6% 09/07/2007
Software -6.0% -19.0% -34.7% -36.7% 02/11/2007
Telecoms -2.7% -16.1% -43.1% -47.1% 31/05/2007
Insurances -7.8% -31.7% -61.7% -66.7% 16/05/2007
Banks -8.9% -23.6% -40.3% -56.6% 20/02/2007
Property, holdings, other financials -13.0% -37.2% -43.8% -58.0% 07/02/2007
S&P 500 -4.0% -22.1% -38.2% -42.0% 09/10/2007
TABLEAU 21 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
TABLEAU DE BORD ESTIMATIONS CONSENSUS ET VALORISATIONS DJ STOXX
Performance Earnings Estimate revisions since Masses (€bn) % share
since growth 30/06/08 31/03/08 31/12/07
P/E
Dividend 2008
RoE
of total
(DJ Stoxx au 29/10/2008) 1 week YTD 2009/08 2008/07 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 (€bn) Yield 2008
No.
of
cies
Mark.
cap.
Earnings
08 Mark cap
DEEP CYCLICALS
Chemicals 1.3% -40.0% 3.0% 20.9% -3.7% 2.9% 6.0% 11.4% 9.0% 14.3% 7.6x 7.9x 6.66 4.8% 19.7% 20 140.1 17.8 2.7%
Oils 11.7% -36.4% -4.3% 32.4% -2.7% 4.5% 15.6% 22.3% 14.7% 23.0% 6.1x 5.8x 32.62 6.1% 24.6% 34 537.4 92.3 10.4%
Paper / Packaging 6.2% -35.9% 9.3% -33.7% -16.7% -13.9% -22.7% -22.7% -31.0% -29.5% 10.9x 12.0x 1.52 6.9% 8.9% 7 22.0 1.8 0.4%
Metals & Mining -0.7% -61.5% -1.7% 34.6% -11.5% 7.8% 11.1% 22.1% 11.9% 19.4% 3.7x 3.6x 11.21 5.4% 30.0% 25 207.8 57.0 4.0%
907.4 168.9 17.5%
SEMI CYCLICALS
Aerospace / Defence 2.2% -42.2% 11.5% 25.2% -0.3% -0.3% -1.8% -1.3% -7.8% -5.8% 7.6x 8.5x 2.27 4.1% 15.6% 12 55.6 6.5 1.1%
Construction -2.1% -52.9% 5.8% -13.2% -9.2% -8.2% -15.3% -13.1% -20.7% -18.5% 7.0x 7.4x 3.48 6.7% 15.9% 18 52.1 7.1 1.0%
Building materials -3.5% -49.9% -1.6% -4.7% -16.3% -8.2% -20.6% -11.6% -20.3% -9.8% 6.2x 6.1x 3.40 5.6% 14.8% 13 60.2 9.9 1.2%
Capital Goods -7.0% -54.7% 10.1% 12.9% -4.1% 0.9% -3.2% 0.1% -10.9% -7.0% 6.6x 7.3x 8.97 5.0% 23.6% 45 178.2 24.4 3.4%
Support services 0.1% -37.2% 3.8% 13.6% -6.0% 1.6% -6.9% 0.5% -12.7% -5.1% 8.0x 8.4x 5.15 4.6% 22.7% 35 113.2 13.6 2.2%
459.4 61.5 8.9%
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Airlines 3.9% -44.8% -27.8% -61.1% -46.3% -28.8% -67.3% -53.4% -72.8% -60.7% 15.9x 11.5x 0.61 3.8% 5.1% 5 16.3 1.4 0.3%
Automotives -17.9% -50.5% -13.5% -2.8% -33.2% -14.3% -35.2% -15.1% -39.2% -17.6% 8.5x 7.3x 7.57 4.8% 14.1% 14 157.6 21.5 3.0%
General retailers -2.2% -47.5% -1.2% -14.4% -15.9% -8.8% -20.8% -12.6% -31.8% -23.1% 10.1x 10.0x 3.57 5.6% 28.3% 14 63.9 6.4 1.2%
Hotel / leisure -1.9% -49.3% 3.2% 2.5% -5.0% 2.6% -9.1% -0.1% -16.4% -8.4% 8.2x 8.5x 2.80 6.8% 12.2% 13 41.5 4.9 0.8%
Luxury/consumer goods 9.6% -35.6% 10.1% 8.6% -2.5% 0.3% -3.9% -1.9% -8.7% -5.4% 9.1x 10.0x 2.52 3.4% 17.3% 10 73.7 7.4 1.4%
353.0 41.6 6.8%
DEFENSIVES
Home & Personal Care 4.3% -28.6% 10.1% 7.5% -3.8% -1.1% -4.1% -2.0% -6.5% -5.2% 14.3x 15.7x 2.26 2.6% 23.1% 6 87.8 5.6 1.7%
Food producer 4.6% -22.6% 9.1% 5.4% 0.2% 2.2% -1.5% 0.4% -3.8% -2.5% 12.3x 13.5x 13.29 3.9% 23.2% 20 343.7 25.5 6.6%
Beverages -3.6% -41.9% 11.4% 1.9% -4.0% -3.9% -6.1% -4.6% -9.2% -7.7% 9.4x 10.5x 3.34 3.5% 22.4% 9 95.4 9.1 1.8%
Food retail 2.1% -38.6% 10.2% 3.9% -5.9% -3.4% -7.2% -4.6% -10.7% -8.8% 10.1x 11.1x 3.90 3.9% 15.5% 11 100.3 9.0 1.9%
Health 7.6% -12.4% 9.4% 13.0% 4.7% 6.3% 2.7% 5.3% -1.8% 1.3% 11.5x 12.6x 16.64 3.3% 28.6% 34 503.4 39.9 9.7%
Utilities 5.2% -37.5% 12.7% 3.7% -1.2% -1.4% -0.6% -3.4% -4.7% -6.7% 10.4x 11.8x 28.50 5.2% 15.8% 37 546.1 46.4 10.5%
1676.6 135.6 32.4%
TMT
IT Hardware 8.1% -50.3% 6.6% -12.7% -18.3% -10.2% -23.2% -16.8% -25.3% -20.6% 8.9x 9.5x 3.72 4.1% 25.6% 10 91.3 9.6 1.8%
Media 1.3% -37.5% 5.0% 6.5% -5.0% -0.8% -6.4% -1.3% -11.0% -6.0% 8.8x 9.2x 2.73 5.2% 23.7% 17 52.7 5.7 1.0%
Broadcasting 5.0% -40.4% 9.6% -8.6% -11.0% -4.4% -15.9% -7.0% -22.3% -14.5% 10.9x 11.9x 1.52 6.2% 21.4% 6 24.5 2.1 0.5%
Semiconductors 3.3% -48.8% ns -101.9% -19.4% NS -28.5% NS -45.2% NS 13.3x NS 0.38 2.4% 6.3% 5 16.0 0.0 0.3%
IT Services 0.4% -41.5% 5.3% 15.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.1% 0.5% -11.4% -4.0% 7.3x 7.7x 0.45 4.9% 14.4% 5 9.1 1.2 0.2%
Software 6.7% -23.3% 11.3% 16.4% -3.3% 0.2% -4.3% 0.4% -3.6% -0.3% 13.2x 14.7x 0.81 1.8% 26.5% 5 44.1 3.0 0.9%
Telecoms 1.4% -38.3% 7.6% -4.9% -4.0% -2.3% -4.5% -1.8% -7.0% -4.0% 8.5x 9.2x 28.93 7.2% 19.6% 24 403.6 43.9 7.8%
641.3 65.4 12.4%
FINANCIALS
Insurances -5.0% -48.1% 12.0% -17.1% -9.2% -11.7% -11.4% -15.9% -16.2% -18.9% 5.0x 5.6x 20.34 7.8% 15.9% 34 261.2 46.9 5.0%
Banks -2.2% -52.3% 32.2% -32.9% -17.7% -20.5% -27.5% -38.0% -34.2% -44.7% 5.8x 7.7x 57.22 7.8% 10.2% 58 730.6 95.5 14.1%
Property, holdings, others -2.4% -46.8% 84.7% -55.3% -18.2% -40.5% -19.2% -45.1% -22.8% -46.1% 9.3x 17.2x 8.92 5.9% 10.4% 54 151.9 8.9 2.9%
D&J STOXX w/o Banks 5.9% 4.8% 1143.7 151.2 22.1%
DJ STOXX 1.1% -42.8% 9.9% -3.5% -9.1% -5.3% -9.2% -8.7% -13.7% -13.2% 7.6x 8.3x 285.30 5.5% 19.5% 600 5181.4 624.2 100.0%
w/o fin. & deep cyclicals 9.6x 10.3x 207.74 5.0%
TABLEAU 22 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, JCF, ODDO SECURITIES
TABLEAU DE BORD ESTIMATIONS CONSENSUS ET VALORISATIONS S&P 500
Performance Earnings Estimate revisions since Masses ($bn) % share
since growth 30/06/08 31/03/08 31/12/07
P/E
Dividend 2007
RoE
of total
(S&P 500 au29/10/2008) 1 week YTD 2009/08 2008/07 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 ($bn) Yield 2008
No.
of
cies
Mark.
cap.
Earnings
08 Mark cap.
DEEP CYCLICALS
Chemicals -3.9% -31.5% 2.9% 5.6% -9.5% -4.2% -6.0% -3.8% -4.6% -2.8% 10.4x 10.7x 6.55 3.8% 23.6% 15 174.6 16.4 2.1%
Oils 1.4% -38.7% -3.8% 25.2% -14.4% -5.9% 2.1% 11.4% 4.9% 16.7% 6.7x 6.5x 22.12 2.2% 28.1% 35 994.9 154.0 11.9%
Paper / Packaging -8.4% -49.8% 26.9% -32.2% -14.8% 12.8% -36.6% -35.2% -41.2% -45.9% 13.2x 16.8x 1.10 6.5% 4.4% 3 16.9 1.0 0.2%
Metals & Mining -12.6% -64.4% 10.8% 11.0% -23.3% -14.0% -7.4% -2.6% -3.7% -5.3% 4.6x 5.1x 2.54 4.0% 21.1% 11 63.9 12.5 0.8%
1250.2 183.9 15.0%
SEMI CYCLICALS
Aerospace / Defence -4.2% -36.2% 11.8% 10.2% -3.1% -1.8% -2.6% -2.0% -3.4% -1.7% 8.8x 9.8x 4.92 2.6% 24.6% 9 187.1 19.1 2.2%
Construction -13.5% -57.6% -126.6% -57.9% -32.3% NS -36.2% NS -49.0% NS 18.7x NS 0.44 2.6% 2.9% 7 17.4 -3.5 0.2%
Building materials -7.2% -31.6% 5.7% -43.2% -18.4% -6.0% -36.7% -30.4% -43.8% -43.8% 15.2x 16.1x 0.71 4.4% 15.9% 3 16.1 1.0 0.2%
Capital Goods -9.4% -51.2% -2.2% 3.2% -18.7% -6.0% -21.4% -9.2% -22.1% -9.7% 8.4x 8.2x 19.39 5.0% 19.8% 27 390.4 47.6 4.7%
Support sces -2.9% -21.6% 10.5% 5.9% -3.4% 1.5% -7.2% -4.3% -9.0% -5.6% 11.3x 12.5x 6.45 2.4% 21.4% 27 269.5 21.5 3.2%
880.5 85.7 10.6%
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Airlines -5.0% -2.8% 44.4% -26.2% 85.7% 76.7% -10.3% -23.7% -25.9% -37.7% 18.2x 26.4x 0.01 0.2% 4.7% 1 8.8 0.3 0.1%
Automotives -9.6% -59.3% -57.3% -987.8% NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS 0.84 3.3% 15.3% 5 25.9 -12.6 0.3%
General retailers -4.4% -24.0% 7.4% 0.4% -5.8% -1.6% -7.4% -2.6% -14.5% -9.5% 11.5x 12.3x 9.43 1.7% 18.9% 33 539.9 43.8 6.5%
Hotel / leisure -2.0% -31.4% 1.2% 1.3% -8.8% -1.6% -12.6% -3.3% -15.4% -5.2% 12.2x 12.3x 4.33 3.6% 24.8% 10 120.9 9.8 1.5%
Luxury/consumer goods -1.9% -20.9% 8.6% 10.3% -3.1% 0.5% -3.6% -0.1% -3.9% -0.7% 11.1x 12.1x 10.28 4.6% 36.9% 16 224.7 18.6 2.7%
920.1 59.9 11.0%
DEFENSIVES
Home & Personal Care -3.8% -20.9% 11.1% 11.8% -1.1% -1.0% -2.1% -1.5% -3.0% -2.0% 13.8x 15.4x 7.54 2.7% 18.7% 11 277.3 18.0 3.3%
Food producer 1.9% -16.0% 8.6% 4.5% -2.4% -1.1% -1.8% -0.5% -3.9% -2.2% 13.3x 14.4x 6.34 3.3% 24.9% 12 192.6 13.4 2.3%
Beverages -3.0% -26.7% 8.7% 11.4% -0.9% -0.1% -0.5% 0.5% -1.5% 0.6% 12.9x 14.0x 7.61 3.0% 37.8% 9 254.7 18.1 3.1%
Food retail -4.2% -29.2% 8.5% 6.9% -4.6% -1.9% -5.2% -1.5% -7.7% -2.9% 10.5x 11.4x 1.10 2.4% 23.0% 5 45.9 4.0 0.6%
Health -0.7% -24.0% 9.4% 9.6% -1.0% 0.9% -1.4% 0.4% -2.7% -0.5% 10.7x 11.7x 28.34 2.5% 25.5% 46 1145.0 97.7 13.7%
Utilities 3.6% -33.0% 7.9% 7.3% -2.6% -0.5% -1.3% 0.8% -2.4% 0.1% 10.5x 11.3x 14.93 4.5% 15.3% 33 331.6 29.4 4.0%
2247.1 180.7 27.0%
TMT
IT Hardware -7.7% -39.5% 8.7% 17.1% -5.2% 0.3% -5.2% 1.2% -7.4% 0.0% 10.4x 11.3x 5.88 1.0% 25.8% 29 610.6 54.2 7.3%
Media -2.1% -47.6% 10.3% 13.0% -10.5% -4.5% -10.3% -5.1% -17.0% -9.2% 13.2x 14.5x 1.02 0.5% 19.9% 13 206.6 14.2 2.5%
Broadcasting -3.9% -36.5% 6.5% 14.4% -9.0% -1.5% -7.7% -0.3% -8.5% -1.6% 9.6x 10.2x 3.31 1.9% 11.7% 6 171.2 16.8 2.1%
Semiconductors -9.1% -48.2% 2.7% -4.8% -30.6% -11.1% -33.4% -16.9% -39.7% -27.1% 13.9x 14.3x 4.72 2.8% 17.7% 17 168.6 11.8 2.0%
IT Services -12.1% -44.3% 16.9% 7.4% -5.4% -5.2% -2.8% -7.6% -8.5% -8.1% 9.4x 11.0x 0.06 0.4% 14.2% 5 14.1 1.3 0.2%
Software -6.0% -34.7% 12.2% 24.1% -2.3% -0.4% 1.4% 2.1% 3.1% 4.5% 10.4x 11.7x 3.98 1.1% 39.8% 15 360.2 30.8 4.3%
Telecoms -2.7% -43.1% 5.4% 11.7% -8.2% -3.6% -11.2% -6.4% -17.6% -13.4% 9.2x 9.7x 16.20 6.1% 14.1% 10 266.6 27.6 3.2%
1797.9 156.8 21.6%
FINANCIALS
Insurances -7.8% -61.7% 50.3% -47.7% -35.0% -42.3% -40.2% -52.0% -43.9% -58.9% 6.0x 9.0x 9.02 4.5% 11.5% 22 207.5 23.0 2.5%
Banks -8.9% -40.3% 349.3% -77.0% -29.5% -74.3% -39.8% -83.4% -48.0% -87.4% 10.1x 45.2x 48.38 5.6% 8.5% 40 871.4 19.3 10.5%
Property, holdings, others -13.0% -43.8% 3.9% -4.9% -12.5% -7.4% -13.4% -1.8% -8.7% -4.2% 12.9x 13.4x 7.63 4.9% 15.0% 25 154.9 11.6 1.9%
S&P 500 w/o banks 8.3% 6.5% 1233.7 53.9 14.8%
S&P 500 -4.0% -38.2% 17.4% -3.0% -13.5% -12.6% -13.7% -16.0% -17.0% -20.9% 9.8x 11.6x 255.19 3.1% 22.1% 500 8329.6 720.8 100.0%
w/o fin. and deep cyclicals 11.0x 12.1x 197.79 2.7%
TABLEAU 23 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, JCF, ODDO SECURITIES
PE 12M/F DES PRINCIPAUX SECTEURS ET HISTORIQUES, DJ STOXX
DJ Stoxx Current 3Y average Gap to 3Y av 10Y average(*) Gap to 10Y av
PE 12M forward 21/10/2008 absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative
DEEP CYCLICALS
Chemicals 8.1 1.0 13.8 1.1 -41% -10% 15.0 1.0 -46% 2%
Oils 6.1 0.7 10.1 0.8 -40% -7% 15.7 1.0 -61% -25%
Paper / Packaging 11.6 1.4 14.9 1.2 -22% 20% 13.5 0.9 -14% 56%
Metals & Mining 4.2 0.5 10.2 0.8 -59% -37% 12.5 0.8 -67% -37%
SEMI CYCLICALS
Aerospace / Defence 8.3 1.0 13.5 1.1 -38% -5% 13.6 0.9 -39% 15%
Construction 7.7 0.9 14.8 1.2 -48% -20% 13.5 0.9 -43% 7%
Building materials 6.7 0.8 12.2 0.9 -45% -15% 13.0 0.8 -48% -2%
Capital Goods 8.7 1.0 15.6 1.2 -44% -14% 16.4 1.0 -47% 0%
Support sces 8.6 1.0 14.1 1.1 -39% -6% 16.7 1.0 -49% 0%
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Airlines 14.4 1.7 11.6 0.9 24% 88% 15.8 1.0 -9% 71%
Automotives 8.4 1.0 11.6 0.9 -28% 11% 12.8 0.8 -35% 25%
General retailers 10.5 1.3 15.8 1.2 -34% 2% 17.1 1.1 -39% 16%
Hotel / leisure 8.8 1.1 16.0 1.2 -45% -15% 16.0 1.0 -45% 3%
Luxury/consumer goods 10.3 1.2 17.3 1.4 -41% -8% 19.3 1.2 -47% 2%
DEFENSIVES
Home & Personal Care 15.2 1.8 20.8 1.6 -27% 12% 25.0 1.6 -39% 17%
Food producer 13.2 1.6 16.0 1.3 -17% 26% 16.5 1.1 -20% 52%
Beverages 10.7 1.3 17.1 1.3 -37% -3% 17.6 1.1 -39% 15%
Food retail 11.0 1.3 16.4 1.3 -33% 4% 18.5 1.2 -40% 15%
Health 12.1 1.5 16.2 1.3 -25% 14% 21.0 1.3 -43% 11%
Utilities 11.4 1.4 16.2 1.3 -30% 8% 15.6 1.0 -27% 38%
GROWTH
IT Hardware 9.6 1.2 15.6 1.2 -38% -5% 25.0 1.6 -62% -26%
Media 9.5 1.1 15.6 1.2 -39% -6% 18.7 1.2 -49% -3%
Broadcasting 11.9 1.4 17.5 1.4 -32% 5% 25.8 1.6 -54% -10%
Semiconductors 30.3 3.7 28.8 2.3 5% 58% 30.4 2.0 0% 81%
IT Services 7.9 1.0 15.7 1.2 -50% -22% 25.2 1.5 -69% -37%
Software 14.2 1.7 22.4 1.8 -37% -2% 34.3 2.1 -59% -18%
Telecoms 9.2 1.1 12.9 1.0 -29% 9% 20.4 1.2 -55% -10%
FINANCIALS
Insurances 5.6 0.7 9.8 0.8 -42% -11% 15.1 0.9 -63% -25%
Banks 7.0 0.8 10.5 0.8 -33% 3% 12.8 0.8 -45% 5%
Property, holdings, others 11.5 1.4 16.3 1.3 -30% 8% 18.1 1.2 -37% 20%
DJ STOXX 8.3 12.7 -35% 16.0 -48%
DJ STOXX w/o B, O & C 10.4 15.2 -31% 17.9 -42%
TABLEAU 24 SOURCES : JCF, ODDO SECURITIES
PE 12M/F DES PRINCIPAUX SECTEURS ET HISTORIQUES, S&P 500
S&P 500 Current 3Y average Gap to 3Y av 10Y average(*) Gap to 10Y av
PE 12M forward 21/10/2008 absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative absolute relative
DEEP CYCLICALS
Chemicals 10.8 1.0 14.7 1.0 -26% -1% 17.6 0.9 -39% 2%
Oils 6.7 0.6 10.6 0.7 -37% -14% 16.3 0.8 -59% -29%
Paper / Packaging 17.1 1.5 21.6 1.4 -21% 7% 25.4 1.4 -33% 12%
Metals & Mining 5.5 0.5 13.2 0.9 -58% -43% 17.4 0.9 -68% -47%
SEMI CYCLICALS
Aerospace / Defence 9.3 0.8 16.0 1.1 -42% -21% 17.1 0.9 -45% -10%
Construction ns ns ns 0.8 ns ns ns 0.5 ns ns
Building materials 16.7 1.5 15.3 1.0 10% 47% 15.8 0.9 6% 74%
Capital Goods 8.9 0.8 15.3 1.0 -41% -21% 18.9 1.0 -53% -21%
Support sces 12.4 1.1 17.4 1.1 -29% -4% 19.0 1.0 -35% 7%
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Airlines 23.8 2.1 24.0 1.6 -1% 31% 25.1 1.4 -5% 51%
Automotives ns ns 1.7 1.7 ns ns 14.9 0.8 ns ns
General retailers 12.5 1.1 16.3 1.1 -23% 4% 22.2 1.2 -43% -4%
Hotel / leisure 12.7 1.1 18.6 1.2 -32% -8% 19.4 1.1 -35% 7%
Luxury/consumer goods 11.8 1.1 15.3 1.0 -23% 4% 15.0 0.8 -21% 28%
DEFENSIVES
Home & Personal Care 15.5 1.4 19.1 1.3 -19% 9% 21.6 1.2 -28% 19%
Food producer 14.2 1.3 17.4 1.1 -18% 10% 18.2 1.0 -22% 29%
Beverages 14.4 1.3 18.6 1.2 -23% 4% 24.5 1.3 -41% -1%
Food retail 11.2 1.0 17.0 1.1 -34% -10% 17.8 1.0 -37% 4%
Health 11.7 1.0 16.2 1.1 -28% -3% 21.5 1.1 -46% -8%
Utilities 11.1 1.0 15.8 1.0 -30% -5% 13.9 0.8 -20% 28%
GROWTH
IT Hardware 11.4 1.0 19.6 1.3 -42% -21% 26.6 1.4 -57% -27%
Media 14.3 1.3 26.8 1.8 -47% -28% 30.1 1.6 -53% -21%
Broadcasting 10.7 1.0 19.5 1.3 -45% -25% 40.4 2.0 -74% -53%
Semiconductors 14.7 1.3 20.7 1.4 -29% -4% 29.1 1.6 -50% -16%
IT Services 11.2 1.0 19.5 1.3 -43% -22% 20.7 1.1 -46% -10%
Software 11.7 1.0 18.6 1.2 -37% -15% 29.5 1.5 -60% -31%
Telecoms 9.7 0.9 14.8 1.0 -35% -12% 17.1 0.9 -44% -6%
FINANCIALS
Insurances 8.1 0.7 10.7 0.7 -24% 2% 14.3 0.7 -43% -4%
Banks 19.6 1.7 13.0 0.9 51% 101% 14.0 0.8 40% 131%
Property, holdings, others 14.2 1.3 26.5 1.7 -46% -27% 17.6 1.0 -19% 24%
S&P 500 11.2 15.2 -26% 18.9 -41%
S&P 500 w/o B, O & C 12.1 17.4 -31% 21.2 -43%
TABLEAU 25 SOURCES : JCF, ODDO SECURITIES
28
HISTORIQUE RECENT DE TAUX : ETATS-UNIS
US INTEREST RATE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01/01/2003
01/04/2003
01/07/2003
01/10/2003
01/01/2004
01/04/2004
01/07/2004
01/10/2004
01/01/2005
01/04/2005
01/07/2005
01/10/2005
01/01/2006
01/04/2006
01/07/2006
01/10/2006
01/01/2007
01/04/2007
01/07/2007
01/10/2007
01/01/2008
01/04/2008
01/07/2008
01/10/2008
US FED LIBOR 3M US Treasury 10Y Benchmark
GRAPHE 26 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
HISTORIQUE RECENT DE TAUX : ETATS-UNIS
LIBOR 3M vs US Treasury 3M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
02/01/1986
02/01/1987
02/01/1988
02/01/1989
02/01/1990
02/01/1991
02/01/1992
02/01/1993
02/01/1994
02/01/1995
02/01/1996
02/01/1997
02/01/1998
02/01/1999
02/01/2000
02/01/2001
02/01/2002
02/01/2003
02/01/2004
02/01/2005
02/01/2006
02/01/2007
02/01/2008
US Treasury 3M LIBOR 3M
3
GRAPHE 27 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
29
HISTORIQUE RECENT DE TAUX : EUROPE
EUROPE INTEREST RATE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
01/01/2003
01/04/2003
01/07/2003
01/10/2003
01/01/2004
01/04/2004
01/07/2004
01/10/2004
01/01/2005
01/04/2005
01/07/2005
01/10/2005
01/01/2006
01/04/2006
01/07/2006
01/10/2006
01/01/2007
01/04/2007
01/07/2007
01/10/2007
01/01/2008
01/04/2008
01/07/2008
01/10/2008
ECB EURIBOR 3M German BUNDES 10Y Benchmark
GRAPHE 28 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
HISTORIQUE RECENT DE SPREAD CREDIT – ETATS-UNIS, EUROPE
Credit Spread Investment Grade EU & US
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
02/04/2007
02/05/2007
02/06/2007
02/07/2007
02/08/2007
02/09/2007
02/10/2007
02/11/2007
02/12/2007
02/01/2008
02/02/2008
02/03/2008
02/04/2008
02/05/2008
02/06/2008
02/07/2008
02/08/2008
02/09/2008
02/10/2008
ITRAXX EUROPE 5Y CDX Investment Grade
GRAPHE 29 SOURCES : DATASTREAM, ODDO SECURITIES
Les courbes ne passent pas.