Un autre avis (Securibourse)

par jmp , Boulogne/Mer, dimanche 13 janvier 2008, 10:20 (il y a 6156 jours) @ labadie

Je suis assez d'accord avec Dr J (ekyll>) dans son commentaire sur Nouriel Roubini:
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First off, I don't think anyone is suggesting one should make investment decisions based on a blog or any other single piece of information.

Secondly, I agree with you. Calling a recession is a fools game, which makes me wonder all the more why such a bright guy as Roubini has gotten caught for several years now playing a fools game to the point where much of his blogging appears to be emotionally driven, one sided, and self serving.

The underlying fundamentals are always unique, which is why markets exist. Today is no more unique, then when the tech bubble burst, when Katrina hit, when there was an unprecedented surplus under Clinton, etc. It's always unique.

In general, I've enjoyed the blog. The most intelligent postings come from NR, but I find most of the commentary on this blog frustratingly silly and conspiracy oriented to such a degree that it takes away from NR and those of us seeking real discussion.

That said, as I said in my second point, NR has really shifted away from dispassionate and balanced posts that posit his very well thought out position towards posts that appear to be aimed at getting him more airtime on CNBC and more subscribers to his service. It's certainly his right to do so, and I appreciate his hard work, efforts, and sharing nonetheless, but still it does take away from the quality.

Obviously there are plenty of ominous signs out there of a slow down, if not outright recession. I think and hope we will avoid one, and if we do, I certainly hope NR will be a standup guy and not start backpedaling with stuff like, "Well, we certainly are having what feels like a recession or a growth recession..." No, he's been shouting doom and gloom hard landing serious recession. I want to see 2 quarters of negative GDP growth given his multiyear level of conviction. But if you couldn't guess, I don't think we'll see one.

As for the longterm negative economic impact if any, I doubt it. But it's all semantics. What do you define as longterm> as major impact> If anything I think cooling down global growth, growing US exports, slowing imports, reduced consumption of fossil fuels etc. is a long term positive for the globe. Cutting down less trees to build overpriced, oversized, over energy consuming houses is great news as far as I'm concerned. Making homes more affordable> I'm all for it.

So in short, I like the quality of the blog, I see the potential for recession, I'm disappointed in NR's growing emotional one sidedness, and I hope that my posts are found somewhat instructive and interesting by my fellow posters.

Dr J
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jean-marie