PIMCO devient bearish sur l'immmobilier aux US

par The Bull , Guinée, jeudi 08 juin 2006, 15:31 (il y a 6734 jours)

Tout est ici Link

En substance, PIMCO c'est 610 Mds de $ d'actifs sous gestion...

Le passage sur la création de la bulle immobilière est tout simplement limpide, tout a commencé après l'explosion de la bulle internet...

"The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble was likely the catalyst for a substitution trend, causing individuals to move out of equities and into homes. Individuals, no longer wanting the volatility of the stock market, sold stocks and moved into what they considered to be the safer choice – real estate. A year later, tragedy struck on 9/11/01. This event further dampened consumer confidence, causing people to travel less and invest more time and money into their homes. The corporate scandals of 2002 reinforced the belief that real estate was more secure than the stock market. Meanwhile, the Fed, in an effort to reflate the economy, supported the transition into housing by lowering short-term interest rates all the way to 1% in June of 2003. Finally, once mortgage rates started to move higher, lenders became more creative with financing in order to attract new buyers. Any mortgage that kept monthly payments low was marketed. Homebuyers took the bait. The use of interest-only (IO) mortgages soared. Documentation for new loans became less stringent. Down payments fell. These forces all combined to create a wave of asset reflation and housing was the direct beneficiary. However, past momentum is unlikely to continue.

Housing inventories are becoming a problem. Presently there are almost 4 million homes available for sale nationwide, including 3.383 million existing and 565,000 new homes. Current inventories are at record levels, having risen 27% and 37% year-over-year for new and existing homes, respectively (chart 3). Given declining affordability and rising inventories, we expect to see homes for sale remain on the market longer and asking prices come down. The housing market should quickly transition from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market.

In summary, the main forces driving housing price appreciation in the past are now softening. Declining affordability, resulting from rising prices and interest rates, has become a significant headwind facing new buyers. Despite the persistence of creative mortgage financing, prices have now risen to a point where demand is slowing. Federal regulators are beginning to crack down on risky lending practices. Speculators are shifting from buyers to sellers. Mortgage application growth is slowing. Finally, and most importantly, the supply and demand imbalance in the housing market is turning sharply for the worse as inventories soar."